This is the fourth article about the blessing and curse of the straight line. Here I want to discuss some factors that might have a great impact on the current industrial civilization. My focus here is not discussing them as “problems” or even “challenges” but as drivers of change.
The biggest thing that will impact this current iteration of us is the fact that our model, our numbers, our scale, everything about us today, is utterly dependent on a non-rewable resource. That is, one day we will no longer be able to recover enough of it for our needs. Guaranteed. And then it's all over for this model, if the collateral damage doesn't get us first. This descent is more likely to continue to follow the curve it is following now, i suppose, than hit a cliff. But who knows these details? Maybe it will hit a cliff. All we know for sure is that this iteration of us is going away, that there is and never was any other way for this to end. In the thick of things, you'll notice not many were wringing their hands over it. But they sure are now! Now that the end is in sight. With renewables being a futile bargaining chip, the problem there being we are not in a bargaining position. But it was always there at any rate, this end, awaiting us. There will indeed be "a transition." For the small percentage of us that survive the model's demise. It will be just as random and chaotic as all human events playing out over time. It will not be engineered by us in any larger sense.
Будь-яка втрата "шестерні", навіть найменша, великого складного людського механізму суспільства, боляче б'є по найбіднішим і вразливим, що буде, коли такі втрати будуть по всій системі, що діятимуть, як наростаючий оберт маховика?
Механізм не можна зупинити і полагодити, к лагодити на ходу – ще більша фантазія. Його треба зупинити і почати складати наново, орієнтуючись в першу чергу, на потреби всього життя, а не лише користь для людини чи її уявних соціо-культурні конструкти дійсності.
Regard the primal human urge that selectively bred the horse into breeds of power and breeds of speed and strong ponies that could haul heavy carts of coal in cramped spaces. The breeding of dogs with extraordinary sense of smell, or loyal guard dogs, dogs that would herd sheep all from wolf stock. Knives to do work our teeth and nails can’t do. The urge that devised windmills to grind grain. Native Americans carefully driving herds of buffalo over cliffs for mass efficient slaughter, constructing rock barriers to act as a funnel - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_jump#:~:text=A%20buffalo%20jump%2C%20or%20sometimes,other%20game%2C%20such%20as%20reindeer. All technologies to transcend our human limits. We are living at the culmination of this process. It was never fully guided by love and wisdom.
Bang-on. Oil is the endgame for "progress." It's now gonna be regress. And none of it guided by anything beyond millions of arbitrary responses to chaos, as always. Little of it subject to our approval, and none of the basic contract of life subject to it, anymore than it's ever been.
I have a small 50 acre farm and this summer I decided to be part of a couple of local markets to sell my oils I press and to meet people. Unfortunately in Canada the markets simply cater to old unhealthy people who purchase ready made food with little thought as or organic or good food quality, I do meet other wonderful vendors who are struggling to make a living. I generally sell to well managed local small stores and just wanted to get an idea of the local markets. it is a good idea but the food stores are the ones who provide most people with food. If it was more like Mexico where markets abound in every small village things would be a lot better for the local farmer.
Our farm produces everything we need, our own food, feed for the animals and grains for our flour making along with sunflowers for our oils. And we do have horses for some of our field work and logging.
Unfortunately I pay to farm. Our pensions provide just enough money to keep us afloat.
We are totally self sufficient in everything.. yes even use sunflower oil in the tractors.
My fear is that very few people are prepared to be self sufficient and it is better to be prepared before things get bad.
My farming will not influence the future of agriculture. It is just a way for me to survive that I believe in. I do not mind paying to farm.. like paying for a vacation. And working with horses has its rewards.. although putting a horse down is one of the most difficult things I have done as they are my working buddies.Certainly waiting for harvest then planting and making better soils is a real learning process and a challenge I have accepted.
The idea of the small farm being a solution to our predicament today is an erroneous one on many levels. As long as you keep this in mind, and you enjoy what you are doing though, why not? It is a solution to eating better for you as individuals, likely. Has been for us (link below.) As for preparation, none of us are prepared for what's coming. It's impossible to fully prepare for what's coming, or for many, even partially prepare.
As you say, the small farm can never be the collective 'solution' to the predicament of modernity, but since a small farm is much closer to the way people will live after modernity is gone, it does offer suitable circumstances within which individuals, families and small communities can attempt to weather modernity's ending.
I think about it this way: if we assume humans will go extinct due to the collapse of modernity, then it is true that no preparation for that collapse is possible, but, if we assume that some small fraction of the human population can survive collapse, then what are the activities and circumstances that facilitate that small fraction's survival? I believe living on a small subsistence farm is one of them. Perhaps becoming a warlord or a hunter-gatherer are other choices.
It may be a solution that works for individuals here and there, particularly young ones with the strength, resilience and energy. It's a complex model mind-you, and the sorts of skills (not to mention technologies) that will be needed once fossil fuels leave the room... what i have found in my history on the small farm is almost no one assuming their farm will help them survive is actually actively pusuing the alternatives they'll very much need to be ready with, up to speed with. #1 on the list being your basic source of work when the tractor is just one more inert lump of iron. The reality that sets in is folks become so busy trying to make a small-farm work in today's hostile environment to such enterprises that they have no time, money nor energy left over to even think about getting up to speed with draft animal power. I honestly wonder what such folks think is going to happen when their access to fuel goes away. Some may make it through the learning cliff without the benefit of a tractor to fall back on. And of course a tiny handful will be ready and equipped. It's gonna make things that much tougher, though. It's an entire culture and art they're going to have to learn under intense pressure and a ticking clock against a backdrop of human chaos. Not to mention the chaos of working with one-ton beasts when you have no prior experience.
The biggest thing that will impact this current iteration of us is the fact that our model, our numbers, our scale, everything about us today, is utterly dependent on a non-rewable resource. That is, one day we will no longer be able to recover enough of it for our needs. Guaranteed. And then it's all over for this model, if the collateral damage doesn't get us first. This descent is more likely to continue to follow the curve it is following now, i suppose, than hit a cliff. But who knows these details? Maybe it will hit a cliff. All we know for sure is that this iteration of us is going away, that there is and never was any other way for this to end. In the thick of things, you'll notice not many were wringing their hands over it. But they sure are now! Now that the end is in sight. With renewables being a futile bargaining chip, the problem there being we are not in a bargaining position. But it was always there at any rate, this end, awaiting us. There will indeed be "a transition." For the small percentage of us that survive the model's demise. It will be just as random and chaotic as all human events playing out over time. It will not be engineered by us in any larger sense.
Будь-яка втрата "шестерні", навіть найменша, великого складного людського механізму суспільства, боляче б'є по найбіднішим і вразливим, що буде, коли такі втрати будуть по всій системі, що діятимуть, як наростаючий оберт маховика?
Механізм не можна зупинити і полагодити, к лагодити на ходу – ще більша фантазія. Його треба зупинити і почати складати наново, орієнтуючись в першу чергу, на потреби всього життя, а не лише користь для людини чи її уявних соціо-культурні конструкти дійсності.
Regard the primal human urge that selectively bred the horse into breeds of power and breeds of speed and strong ponies that could haul heavy carts of coal in cramped spaces. The breeding of dogs with extraordinary sense of smell, or loyal guard dogs, dogs that would herd sheep all from wolf stock. Knives to do work our teeth and nails can’t do. The urge that devised windmills to grind grain. Native Americans carefully driving herds of buffalo over cliffs for mass efficient slaughter, constructing rock barriers to act as a funnel - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_jump#:~:text=A%20buffalo%20jump%2C%20or%20sometimes,other%20game%2C%20such%20as%20reindeer. All technologies to transcend our human limits. We are living at the culmination of this process. It was never fully guided by love and wisdom.
Bang-on. Oil is the endgame for "progress." It's now gonna be regress. And none of it guided by anything beyond millions of arbitrary responses to chaos, as always. Little of it subject to our approval, and none of the basic contract of life subject to it, anymore than it's ever been.
I have a small 50 acre farm and this summer I decided to be part of a couple of local markets to sell my oils I press and to meet people. Unfortunately in Canada the markets simply cater to old unhealthy people who purchase ready made food with little thought as or organic or good food quality, I do meet other wonderful vendors who are struggling to make a living. I generally sell to well managed local small stores and just wanted to get an idea of the local markets. it is a good idea but the food stores are the ones who provide most people with food. If it was more like Mexico where markets abound in every small village things would be a lot better for the local farmer.
Our farm produces everything we need, our own food, feed for the animals and grains for our flour making along with sunflowers for our oils. And we do have horses for some of our field work and logging.
Unfortunately I pay to farm. Our pensions provide just enough money to keep us afloat.
We are totally self sufficient in everything.. yes even use sunflower oil in the tractors.
My fear is that very few people are prepared to be self sufficient and it is better to be prepared before things get bad.
thanks
mat
'
My farming will not influence the future of agriculture. It is just a way for me to survive that I believe in. I do not mind paying to farm.. like paying for a vacation. And working with horses has its rewards.. although putting a horse down is one of the most difficult things I have done as they are my working buddies.Certainly waiting for harvest then planting and making better soils is a real learning process and a challenge I have accepted.
mat
The idea of the small farm being a solution to our predicament today is an erroneous one on many levels. As long as you keep this in mind, and you enjoy what you are doing though, why not? It is a solution to eating better for you as individuals, likely. Has been for us (link below.) As for preparation, none of us are prepared for what's coming. It's impossible to fully prepare for what's coming, or for many, even partially prepare.
https://substack.com/@theatavistwrites/p-148184944
As you say, the small farm can never be the collective 'solution' to the predicament of modernity, but since a small farm is much closer to the way people will live after modernity is gone, it does offer suitable circumstances within which individuals, families and small communities can attempt to weather modernity's ending.
I think about it this way: if we assume humans will go extinct due to the collapse of modernity, then it is true that no preparation for that collapse is possible, but, if we assume that some small fraction of the human population can survive collapse, then what are the activities and circumstances that facilitate that small fraction's survival? I believe living on a small subsistence farm is one of them. Perhaps becoming a warlord or a hunter-gatherer are other choices.
It may be a solution that works for individuals here and there, particularly young ones with the strength, resilience and energy. It's a complex model mind-you, and the sorts of skills (not to mention technologies) that will be needed once fossil fuels leave the room... what i have found in my history on the small farm is almost no one assuming their farm will help them survive is actually actively pusuing the alternatives they'll very much need to be ready with, up to speed with. #1 on the list being your basic source of work when the tractor is just one more inert lump of iron. The reality that sets in is folks become so busy trying to make a small-farm work in today's hostile environment to such enterprises that they have no time, money nor energy left over to even think about getting up to speed with draft animal power. I honestly wonder what such folks think is going to happen when their access to fuel goes away. Some may make it through the learning cliff without the benefit of a tractor to fall back on. And of course a tiny handful will be ready and equipped. It's gonna make things that much tougher, though. It's an entire culture and art they're going to have to learn under intense pressure and a ticking clock against a backdrop of human chaos. Not to mention the chaos of working with one-ton beasts when you have no prior experience.